The SCENIC climate project, under the Helmholtz Association’s “Changing Earth – Sustaining our Future” program, unites seven Earth & Environment Centers to explore how extreme weather events might unfold in varying climate scenarios. Utilizing event-based storyline simulations, the project examines events like the 2019 and 2022 European heatwaves and the 2024 severe rainfall events, assessing their potential severity in both pre-industrial and +4°C warmer climates.

Traditional probabilistic methods often fall short when analyzing unprecedented extreme events. SCENIC addresses this by employing a hierarchical modeling approach: global climate models are “nudged” with reanalysis data to replicate specific atmospheric conditions, then dynamically downscaled to regional models. These simulations inform land-surface models to evaluate impacts on hydrology, agriculture, and health.

Key achievements include detailed analyses of heatwaves and extreme precipitation, development of near-real-time global storyline simulations, and assessments of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation’s (AMOC) influence on global extremes. The project also pioneers air pollution storylines, explores agricultural heat stress evolution, and utilizes machine learning for rainfall field downscaling.

By providing tangible scenarios of climate impacts, the SCENIC climate project enhances understanding and supports adaptation strategies in a changing world.