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What would a recent heatwave look like in a warmer world? | Global Heat Health Information Network

What would a recent heatwave look like in a warmer world?

Organization: KIT Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research

Year: 2025

The Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) and the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) conducted a study to assess how the July 2019 European heatwave might manifest in a warmer climate. Utilizing the storyline approach, researchers simulated the 2019 heatwave under increased global temperatures of +3K and +4K. The methodology involved adjusting the AWI-CM-1.1-MR global climate model to replicate the same jet stream position as observed in ERA5 reanalyses but within warmer climate scenarios.